QSim: Bitcoin Stock to Flow (S2F) CAGR Simulator

BTC PRICE PREDICTION

A hybrid Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model inspired by PlanB, enhanced with a user-defined Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), and Bitcoin allocation sliders. Prices are driven by S2F increases at halvings, with user-specified CAGR for continuous growth and sliders for demand side simulation. Not financial advice.

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Slider Instructions

Set CAGR, S2F exponent, and sliders to adjust growth and allocation. Select a month/year from May 2028 to December 2050.

This model combines a Stock-to-Flow (S2F) approach, inspired by PlanB's work, with a user-defined Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), S2F exponent, and allocation sliders for demand. S2F models scarcity increases at halvings, while CAGR (set via slider, 0%–20%) models steady adoption from the next halving (May 1, 2028). The S2F exponent (2.0–4.0) adjusts the price’s sensitivity to scarcity. Allocation sliders set the percentage of Bitcoin's supply (19.74M BTC) held by each category, increasing price based on weighted impacts (e.g., 0.5 means 1% of supply held increases price by 0.5%).

• CAGR (%): Set annual growth rate (0%–20%). Models adoption/demand growth.
• S2F Exponent: Set the power-law exponent (2.0–4.0) for the S2F model. Lower values (e.g., 2.0) are conservative, predicting ~4x price increase per halving.While an optimistic 4.0 forecasts a 16x jump. Default is 3.5 as per PlanB’s model.
• % of Bitcoin Supply Held by ETFs: Weight: 0.5 (1% = 0.5% price increase). Institutional investment.
• % of Bitcoin Supply Held by Retail: Weight: 0.4. Individual holdings, volatile demand.
• % of Bitcoin Supply Held by Bank Accounts: Weight: 0.2. Custodial holdings, minimal impact.
• % of Bitcoin Supply Held by U.S. Reserve: Weight: 3. Government reserves, major impact.
• % of Bitcoin Supply Held by International Reserves: Weight: 2. Global adoption, significant impact.
• % of Bitcoin Supply Held by Businesses: Weight: 0.3. Corporate treasuries, modest impact.
• % of Bitcoin Supply Held by Treasury Companies: Weight: 0.7. Aggressive accumulation (e.g., Strategy/MSTR).

Bitcoin Halvings: 2028 (1.5625 BTC), 2032 (0.78125 BTC), ..., 2096 (0.000011920928955078125 BTC).

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FUTURE DATE: Select Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Select Year

CAGR (%):

0%

S2F EXPONENT:

3.5

BITCOIN SUPPLY HELD BY ETFs:

0%

BITCOIN SUPPLY HELD BY RETAIL:

0%

BITCOIN SUPPLY HELD BY BANK ACCOUNTS:

0%

BITCOIN SUPPLY HELD BY U.S. RESERVE:

0%

BITCOIN SUPPLY HELD BY INTERNATIONAL RESERVES:

0%

BITCOIN SUPPLY HELD BY BUSINESSES:

0%

BITCOIN SUPPLY HELD BY TREASURY COMPANIES:

0%

MACRO CONDITIONS: BULLISH NEUTRAL BEARISH

TOTAL BITCOIN SUPPLY ALLOCATED (MAX 100%):

0%

Select a valid date to see the price.

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Powered by a hybrid Stock-to-Flow model inspired by PlanB's work, with adjustable CAGR, custom S2F exponent, and slider enhancements by project qultra.